Thursday, June 28, 2012

Don't miss this: Lamb on the global cooling "consensus" around 1977: "There is a considerable measure of agreement between the 24 forecasts listed. Expectation of a trend towards colder climates with weakened general atmospheric circulation from 1950 or 1960 onwards seems to have been well verified by the actual weather to date"

HH Lamb–“Climate: Present, Past & Future–Vol 2”–In Review–Part II « NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

Concerning the post 1940 cooling, Lamb comments.

Kukla & Kukla (1974) report that the area of snow and ice, integrated over the year across the Northern Hemisphere, was 12% more in 1973 than in 1967, when the first satellite surveys were made...

Intriguingly Lamb refers to a study by [Stephen] Schneider & Mass in 1975 and comments

As regards causation of the climatic change from 1600 – 1970, Schneider & Mass, while admitting evidence for effects of great dust producing volcanic eruptions and man’s output of CO2, were able to simulate most of the supposed course of global mean surface air temperature over the past 370 years, by use of a formula expressing variations of the solar energy available in terms of sunset numbers, using Kondratiev & Nikolsky’s relationship which gives maximum solar energy at sunspot number 80...

Lamb then goes on.

There is a considerable measure of agreement between the 24 forecasts listed. Expectation of a trend towards colder climates with weakened general atmospheric circulation from 1950 or 1960 onwards seems to have been well verified by the actual weather to date.

Most forecasts expect this regime to continue into the 21st C , possibly into the second half of that century, in some cases with a further sharp cooling about 1980, and somewhat easier conditions for a time in the first half of that century.

The Japanese global survey and forecast usefully stresses the increased variability and incidence of extremes of temperature and rainfall in recent years.

Related: The Global Cooling Scare Revisited (‘Ice Age' Holdren had plenty of company) — MasterResource

“The dramatic importance of climate changes to the world’s future has been dangerously underestimated by many, often because we have been lulled by modern technology into thinking we have conquered nature. This well-written book points out in clear language that the climatic threat could be as awesome as any we might face, and that massive world-wide actions to hedge against that threat deserve immediate consideration.”

- Stephen Schneider, Back cover endorsement, Lowell Ponte, The Cooling: Has The Next Ice Age Already Begun? Can We Survive It (Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall, Inc., 1976).

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Schneider's relatistic schnitzel is flexible, if nothing else. Typo alert:I believe "sunsets" is meant to be "sunspots".